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Real Life Is Uncertain. Consensus Should Be Too!
Originally from muratbuffalo.blogspot.com/feeds/posts/default
July 30, 2025 Read Original Article

Alright, gather ‘round, folks, because we’ve got another groundbreaking revelation from the bleeding edge of distributed systems theory! Apparently, after a rigorous two-hour session of two “experts” reading a paper for the first time live on camera—because nothing says “scholarly rigor” like a real-time, unedited, potentially awkward book club—they’ve discovered something truly revolutionary: the F-threshold fault model is outdated! My word, stop the presses! I always assumed our distributed systems were operating on 19th-century abacus logic, but to find out the model of faults is a bit too simple? Who could have possibly imagined such a profound insight?

And what a way to deliver this earth-shattering news! A two-hour video discussion where one of the participants asks us to listen at 1.5x speed because they "sound less horrible." Confidence inspiring, truly. I’m picturing a room full of engineers desperately trying to debug a critical production outage, and their lead says, "Hold on, I need to check this vital resource, but only if I can double its playback speed to avoid unnecessary sonic unpleasantness." And then there's the pun, "F'ed up, for F=1 and N=3." Oh, the sheer intellectual power! I’m sure universities worldwide are already updating their curricula to include a mandatory course on advanced dad jokes in distributed systems. Pat Helland must be quaking in his boots, knowing his pun game has been challenged by such linguistic virtuosos.

So, the core argument, after all this intellectual gymnastics, is that machines don't fail uniformly. Shocking! Who knew that a server rack in a scorching data center might be more prone to issues than one chilling in an arctic vault? Or that software updates, those paragons of perfect execution, might introduce new failure modes? It’s almost as if the real world is
 complex. And to tackle this mind-bending complexity, this paper, which they admit doesn't propose a new algorithm, suggests a "paradigm shift" to a "probabilistic approach based on per-node failure probabilities, derived from telemetry and predictive modeling." Ah, yes, the classic "trust the black box" solution! We don’t need simple, understandable guarantees when we can have amorphous "fault curves (p_u)" that are never quite defined. Is p_u 1% per year, per month, per quorum formation? Don't worry your pretty little head about the details, just know the telemetry will tell us! It’s like being told your car is safe because the dashboard lights up with a "trust me, bro" indicator.

And then they dive into Raft, that bastion of safety, and declare it’s only "99.97% safe and live." What a delightful piece of precision! Did they consult a crystal ball for that number? Because later, they express utter confusion about what "safe OR live" vs. "safe AND live" even means in the paper. It seems their profound academic critique hinges on a fundamental misunderstanding of what safety and liveness actually are in consensus protocols. My goodness, if you can’t tell the difference between "my system might lose data OR it might just stop responding" versus "my system will always be consistent and always respond," perhaps you should stick to annotating grocery lists. The paper even claims "violating quorum intersection invariants triggers safety violations"—a statement so hilariously misguided it makes me question if they’ve ever actually read the Paxos family of protocols. Quorum intersection is a mathematical guarantee, not some probabilistic whim!

But wait, there's more! The paper suggests "more nodes can make things worse, probabilistically." Yes, because adding more unreliable components to a system, with poorly understood probabilistic models, definitely could make things worse. Truly, the intellectual bravery to state the obvious, then immediately provide no explanation for it.

In the end, after all the pomp and circumstance, the lengthy video, the undefined p_us, and the apparent confusion over basic distributed systems tenets, the blog post’s author essentially shrugs and admits the F-abstraction they initially mocked might actually be quite useful. They laud its simplicity and the iron-clad safety guarantees it provides. So, the great intellectual journey of discovering a "paradigm shift" concludes with the realization that, actually, the old way was pretty good. It’s like setting off on an epic quest to find a revolutionary new form of wheeled transport, only to return with a slightly scuffed but perfectly functional bicycle, declaring it to be "not bad, really."

My prediction? This "HotOS 2025" paper, with its 77 references validating its sheer volume of reading, will likely grace the bottom of many academic inboxes, perhaps serving as a handy coaster for coffee cups. And its grand "paradigm shift" will gently settle into the dustbin of "interesting ideas that didn't quite understand what they were trying to replace." Pass me a beer, I need to go appreciate the simple, non-probabilistic guarantee that my fridge will keep it cold.